Earth Day? Okay. If you say so.

So today is Earth Day.  Pretty soon it will be Mothers' Day.  Then Memorial Day.  Then Independence Day.  Then... well, you know how it goes.  There's a day for every sort of cause or remembrance or demographic group you wish.  And if yours isn't represented yet with a day on the calendar, just pick one, and post it on social media and soon you'll feel better.

I saw on the web today that Bill Nye the Science Guy waded into the political arena and began labeling the GOP candidates for president as "climate change deniers".  Is that even the right term?  I could probably be labeled as a climate change denier, too, but I don't really deny that the climate is changing (and will continue to).  I just don't come to the same conclusions about it that Bill Nye and others do.

First, the earth's climate is always changing.  And it does so in very long cycles, as are shown in this chart I saw at the British Museum:

As an actuary by trade, someone who deals in pattern recognition for a living, this looks like Time Series to me, not a trend line.

Secondly, I don't believe that we are rapidly approaching some "point of no return" at which point our atmosphere will contain so much CO2 that it will fundamentally be altered beyond anything that there has been on this planet before, and will become incompatible with life as we know it.  Claims like these are extrapolated from the most recent years of upward trend and projected into the future.   Any statistician worth his salt knows that extrapolation beyond any known observed values is fraught with peril. You can interpolate all day long, fairly safely, but extrapolation is a whole different kettle of fish.  Science fiction writers do it, of course, but that's their stock in trade.  To base social policy and economics on extrapolation is simply irresponsible, no matter who is doing it and what their motive or political affiliation might be.

Thirdly, I am not a materialist by ideology.  Unlike the pure materialist philosopher, I do NOT think that matter and energy is all there is, and together they explain all.  I hold instead that the physical is only a small part of what is.  The greater part is in the realm of the metaphysical, and is not accessible by instrumentation, measurement, testing, or the scientific method.  When you are a hard-core materialist, giving credit only to the material realm for substance, and to science for explanation of the human condition (or the Earth's for that matter), you have no other choice than to derive meaning from measurements and formulae.  You know no other language with which to express yourself, or even in which to think.

So Earth Day celebrants, have at it.  I celebrate the earth, too.  Daily.  But from a much different context than yours.

Personally, I think I'd rather stick to days of remembrance that are truly "holy days" (from whence the term "holidays" sprang).  Like Passover.  Tonight.  L'Chaim!

Marooned in San Diego

At the time of this writing, I am sitting in my hotel room in a Homewood Suites near La Jolla, California, waiting for the weekday evening ritual to begin downstairs - a buffet meal put on by the hotel management (tonight is ... burgers on the grill), along with free wine (choice of 2) or tap beer (choice of 1).  The menu rotates each day; it's not exotic, but it is surprisingly good, and very homey.  Last night was lasagna, the night before chicken enchiladas, before that Philly cheese steak, and so forth.  Very pleasant.  :)

But I would rather be home in Des Moines.

I had several purposes in coming out here last Saturday:

     > to sit for a professional exam (Certified Risk Management Professional).  I think I did well, but won't know for 6 weeks.
     > to inspect the apartment/office of one of my direct reports who telecommutes now, and recently moved here to be near family.
     > to attend a convention that should net me some Continuing Education credits (it was huge - 10,000+ people, and well done).
     > to visit some of our Sales Directors and brokers, which I expected would take me about 2 1/2 days.  Instead it took only 1/2 day.

Not enough visits materialized to use up the entire week that I thought I was going to need.  Fortunately, I booked on Southwest Airlines, and they don't charge change fees, but... they do require you to pay the difference in airfare from what your original trip cost and what it would be now on the new return flight.  Pooh.  :(  The company is actually money ahead if I stay and work remotely for the last two days of the week.  So, I'm confined to quarters until Saturday rolls around and I can get out of here.

You would think that I'd be overjoyed to be in sunny San Diego, but for one it isn't sunny!  (well, not continually anyway - it's actually the rainy season).  Des Moines is actually warmer this week than it is out here.  But be that as it may, I have gotten out a little.  Pictures posted below as evidence.  :)

The Cheese is Ripe

Recently, the company I work for decided that they were going to post profiles (including business head shot photos) of its management team on their website.  I've certainly seen those kinds of sections of a business website before, but never before have I been on one!  A surprise promotion last fall put me in the gang of 23 that run the place, and so, I had to go get a picture taken and write up a little bio to go along with it, which I present here for what it's worth.  I suppose it's good timing, as I near the end of my career, to become a "big cheese", as my daughter would say, even if the cheese is well aged and a little aromatic by now.  ;)